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21st-Century Mangrove Expansion Along the Southeastern United States
Enes Gramoso, L.I.A.; Carroll, D.; Cavanaugh, K.C.; Bardou, R.; Osland, M.J.; Van der Stocken, T. (2026). 21st-Century Mangrove Expansion Along the Southeastern United States. Glob. Chang. Biol. 32(1): e70676. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70676
In: Global Change Biology. Blackwell Publishers: Oxford. ISSN 1354-1013; e-ISSN 1365-2486
Related to:
Enes Gramoso, L.; Carroll, D.; Cavanaugh, K.; Bardou, R.; Osland, M.; Van der Stocken, T. (2026). 21st-century mangrove expansion along the southeastern United States, in: Mees, J. et al. Book of abstracts – VLIZ Marine Science Day, 4 March 2026, Oostende. VLIZ Special Publication, 96: pp. 67, more
Peer reviewed article  
Available in  Authors 
Author keywords
    climate change;coastal wetland;ecosystem services;habitat suitability modeling;Lagrangian particle-tracking;ocean dispersal;range expansion;rhizophora-mangle;climate-change;leading-edge;range shifts;salt-marshes;florida;recruitment;ecosystems;evolution;extremes
Authors  Top 
  • Enes Gramoso, L.I.A.
  • Carroll, D.
  • Cavanaugh, K.C.
  • Bardou, R.
  • Osland, M.J.
  • Van der Stocken, T.
Abstract
    Warming winter temperatures are driving range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive mangroves into temperate ecosystems. Along the Atlantic coast of North America, the mangrove range limit is particularly sensitive to climate variability and historical data demonstrate that the mangrove-salt marsh ecotone on this coast has shifted recurrently during recent centuries. However, a comprehensive understanding of how this mangrove-salt marsh ecotone may shift in the future remains lacking. Here, we combine ensemble forecasting of mangrove distribution for the next century with high-resolution oceanographic dispersal simulations, phenological observations, and historical hurricane data to project future mangrove-salt marsh dynamics at the rapidly changing range limit in northeastern Florida (USA). We show that warming winter temperatures will drive continued poleward expansion of mangroves along North America's Atlantic coast, potentially reaching South Carolina by 2100. With ongoing climate change, suitable mangrove habitat is projected to expand beyond the current range limit, and dispersal simulations suggest successful colonization of these sites from established mangrove populations. Additionally, patterns in hurricane directionality and intensity and field reports of propagule presence reveal that these high-energy events may significantly contribute to future mangrove range expansion by facilitating long-distance, storm-driven propagule dispersal. The encroachment of mangroves in salt marsh-dominated latitudes is expected to substantially modify wetland ecosystem function and structure, emphasizing how the identification of newly colonizable habitat can inform conservation strategies and site-specific decisions on mangrove management.
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