Safeguarding climate-resilient mangroves requires only a moderate increase in the global protected area

Dabalà, A.; Brown, C.J.; Van der Stocken, T.; Buelow, C.A.; Schoeman, D.S.; Dunn, D.C.; Lovelock, C.E.; Dahdouh-Guebas, F.; Flower, J.; Neubert, S.; Buenafe, K.C.V.; Everett, J.D.; Esturas, K.J.T.; Richardson, A.J.

doi:/10.1038/s41467-026-68877-4

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Safeguarding climate-resilient mangroves requires only a moderate increase in the global protected area

Dabalà, A.; Brown, C.J.; Van der Stocken, T.; Buelow, C.A.; Schoeman, D.S.; Dunn, D.C.; Lovelock, C.E.; Dahdouh-Guebas, F.; Flower, J.; Neubert, S.; Buenafe, K.C.V.; Everett, J.D.; Esturas, K.J.T.; Richardson, A.J. (2026). Safeguarding climate-resilient mangroves requires only a moderate increase in the global protected area. Nature Comm. 17(1): 2063. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68877-4

In: Nature Communications. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 2041-1723; e-ISSN 2041-1723

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Dabalà, A. Brown, C.J. Van der Stocken, T. Buelow, C.A. Schoeman, D.S.	Dunn, D.C. Lovelock, C.E. Dahdouh-Guebas, F., more Flower, J. Neubert, S.	Buenafe, K.C.V. Everett, J.D. Esturas, K.J.T. Richardson, A.J.

Abstract

Climate change and anthropogenic activities threaten biodiversity and ecosystem services. Climate-smart conservation plans address these challenges by ensuring protection of some climate-resilient areas. However, integrating climate change in the design of conservation plans is often deemed too expensive, as it may require larger networks or protecting more costly sites from a conservation perspective. Using mangroves as a case study, we evaluate the efficiency of protecting mangroves in climate-smart versus climate-naïve reserve networks. We find that climate-smart conservation plans could provide sizable benefits (13.3%) for relatively moderate increases in protected area (+7.3%). Moreover, transboundary plans, involving cooperation among countries, require less area and protect more climate-resilient mangroves than nation-by-nation plans. Implementing these strategies would improve the current protected area network for mangroves, which currently has poor climate resilience. Our methodology could potentially be tested on other ecosystems, assuming sufficient information exists regarding their distribution, biodiversity, and resilience to climate change.

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