Difference between revisions of "Integrating Climate Change into the ICZM planning process - Analysis and Future"

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Monetary damage estimates can be made for coastal and other infrastructure, health, some ecosystem services, changes in availability of freshwater, changes in tourism and changes in agriculture. Both monetary and physical impacts data will be relevant to the next stage of the ICZM.
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==Identifying futures==
 
==References==
 
==References==
 
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Revision as of 15:30, 30 October 2013


Introduction  


Establishment  


Analysis and Futures  


Setting the Vision  


Designing the Future  


Realising the Vision  


 


CC ICZM Process/EstablishmentCC ICZM Process/Analysis and FutureCC ICZM Process/Setting the visionCC ICZM Process/Designing the FutureCC ICZM Process/Realizing the VisionICZM pegaso 3 3.png
About this image

Building the evidence

The aim of this stage is to establish an operational foundation for the subsequent preparation of the plan and its implementation. From a climate viewpoint the key tasks are to:

  1. Identify the main elements of climate variability and change in the short- (10-20 years), mid- (30-40 years), and long-term (60+ years) periods.
  2. The impacts of this variability on key sectors and the risks associated with them.

The work described below is part of the preparation of the plan, although the strategy should describes the broad structure of the climatic data that needs to be collected and analysed and the tools to be used for this purpose.

Elements of Climate Variability and Change

Increases in average annual temperature at a Mediterranean Basin scale are likely to be slightly higher than at a world level [1] [2]. This increase is estimated at approximately between 2°C and 6.5°C by the end of the century (compared with a global mean increase between 1.1°C and 6.4°C). The probability of temperatures rising by between 3 and 4°C is estimated at 50%.

Table 1: Possible climate related Indicators that complement other indicators for the ICZM

Possible climate related Indicators that complement other indicators for the ICZM.png
Note: Each indicator will need further clarification refinement before it can be estimated.

These and other broad estimates of climate impacts in the region are a strong indication of the magnitude of the impacts that need to be taken into account in any future ICZM plans. In doing, however, it is important to avoid duplication of effort and to draw on existing work that has been undertaken at the national, regional and global levels. The best point of departure is the National Communication by the country the UNFCC, which should provide at least national level estimates of the main impacts in terms of temperature increase, sea level rise, precipitation and extreme events. By the very nature of the problem [3], such data cannot consist of point estimates, but must be provided in the form of ranges. Thus they will take a form that makes it appropriate to adopt a risk based assessment at future stages of the process. Box 1 provides a description of the kind of data available for a mature economy such as the United Kingdom. Tables 2 and 3 describe the data that is typically provided. Other countries may not have quite the same level of geographical detail; if the impacts are likely to be significant it may be worth asking a specialised agency such as the UK Met Office or the Danish Climate centre to customise projections for specific coastal regions. This is likely to involve some outlays, which may be recoverable from international institutions supporting the preparation of the programme.

Box1: Impacts data Available for Coastal Zones in the UK

Data are available for a range of future socio-economic scenarios and allowing for different probabilities of climatic outcomes. For example, in the UK the following kinds of data are available for 25x25km grids on a probabilistic basis. The 20 variables for which date are given are listed in Table 1. Projections are averaged for each of seven future overlapping 30 year time periods: 2010-2039; 2020-2049; 2030-2059; 2040-2069: 2050-2079; 2060-2089; 2070-2099. All changes are expressed relative to a modeled 30-yr baseline period of 1961-1990.

Some information is also available in probabilistic terms, which provides a central estimate (e.g. 50% probability of not being more than a given increase in temperature), and very unlikely events (e.g. a 10% probability of being less than a given increase in mean temperature value or more than a given increase in mean temperature). These are based on 3 emissions scenarios plus other uncertain parameters. For marine areas the information available includes, as noted in Table 1, the sea level rise (with the probabilistic information as indicated above for mean temperature rise). In addition the marine projections include information on projected storm surges. The last gives the projected elevation of the projected high tide under different return levels (e.g. 50 year return levels). Figures are available with different confidence intervals. A third piece of climate information that is projected is changes in offshore waves. This gives changes in winter mean wave height but uncertainties in this variable cannot be expressed in probabilistic terms.

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change

The data on climate variability and change is used to assess the impacts in the key sectors of interest and to assess the risks involved. In coastal zones the key sectors are likely to be the following:

  • Impacts on agriculture
  • Coastal infrastructure (housing, public buildings, roads etc.)
  • Impacts of extreme events (heat waves, floods etc.)
  • Sea level rise
  • Availability of freshwater
  • Impacts on tourism
  • Loss of ecosystem services through low river flows, flooding etc.
  • Supply and demand for energy

Table 2: Data Provided on a Downscaled Basis for Making a Risk Assessment

Data Provided on a Downscaled Basis for Making a Risk Assessment.jpg

Source: UK Climate Projections Briefing Report, 2009. Note:

  1. Net surface long wave flux is a measure of the total amount of long wave radiation that flows through a unit area per unit time at the Earth’s surface.
  2. Net surface short wave flux is a measure of the total amount of shortwave radiation that flows through a unit area per unit time at the Earth’s surface.
  3. Total downward surface shortwave flux is a measure of the amount of shortwave radiation received by a unit area per unit time at the Earth’s surface.

Table 3: Typical Data Reported from the Climate Models
Projections for SW England in the 2050s

Typical Data Reported from the Climate Models Projections for SW England in the 2050s.png

Note: Comparisons are relative to the 1960-1990 climate average
Source: UK Climate Projections Briefing Report, 2009.

The main sources of data linking climate variability and change to impacts by sector and the main assessed impacts for the Mediterranean region are summarised in Table 4.

Table 4: Main Impacts of Climate Variability and Change and Sources of Data

Main Impacts of Climate Variability and Change and Sources of Data.png

The main lessons to be learnt from this are the following:

  1. Many of the predictions are for a wider area than just a coastal zone, and certainly wider than the part of a coastal zone likely to be of interest to the drawing up of an ICZM strategy. Thus more downscaled estimates may well be needed, which will necessitate (a) downscaled climate projections and (b) response functions that link impacts to climate variability and change;
  2. The projections that are available have a high level of uncertainty. This is not fully reflected in the Table but the studies either give ranges of estimates or put in a lot of qualifications indicating why we have to be aware of the level of uncertainty. This makes taking a risk assessment approach important; the timing of the impacts is important. Several are long term (over 60 years) and therefore less relevant to the current plans for many but not all activities. Areas where such impacts are a matter of concern include investments in infrastructure, roads, land use planning and some energy supply systems. On the other hand long term agricultural and health projections are not so important for current plans. Cases where shorter term impacts are important include water, flood protection, tourism and agriculture.
  3. The table refers to impacts at the sector level but what matters for policy purposes is often the number of people affected, or the damage to property, crops or other economic activities. This will require some further work on the part of the team drawing up the ICZM, but even in this case local studies on the ‘downstream’ consequences of the impacts may be available. A thorough literature research is recommended.

Risk Assessment

The data collected on the impacts should be presented in a form that can be fed into the drawing up of the policies and priorities in the ICZM. Given the high level of uncertainty the recommended approach is to provide a ‘central’ estimate of impacts, qualified with a ‘low risk’ figure and a ‘high risk’ figure. These estimates can take two forms: a monetary value of the damages or benefits and physical estimates. The former will require some further work, in which some of the physical losses shown in Table 4 can be converted into money values.

Again there is research on this; see for example, Ciscar, 2010 and more widely the results of the PESETA project and the more recent Climate Costs project [4]. The estimates can be presented as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Risk and Damage Representation

Risk Low Risk Central Estimate High Risk
Damages Monetary €€ €€€
Damages Not Included in Monetary Total P PP PPP

Monetary damage estimates can be made for coastal and other infrastructure, health, some ecosystem services, changes in availability of freshwater, changes in tourism and changes in agriculture. Both monetary and physical impacts data will be relevant to the next stage of the ICZM.

Identifying futures

References

  1. Hallegatte S, Somot S & Nassopoulos H. (2007). Région méditerranéenne et changement climatique: une nécessaire anticipation. Expert report IPEMed.
  2. Van Grunderbeeck P & Tourre YM. (2008). Bassin méditerranéen: changement climatique et impacts au cours du XXIème siècle. In: Thibault HL & Quéfélec S. (eds.) Changement climatique et énergie en Méditerranée, 1:1, 1.3-1.69.
  3. One important reason is that future emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases are not known and depend on what policies are adopted to control them. But other sources of uncertainty also exist.
  4. For Climate costs see: http://www.climatecost.cc/reportsandpublications.html. For the PESETA project see http://peseta.jrc.ec.europa.eu/results.html. In some cases it may be possible to give probabilities for the different outcomes. Where it can be provided it should, but this is not usually possible.